Oct 29, 2025 - The Bank of Canada announced a quarter-point cut to its overnight rate, bringing it down to 2.25% — the lowest level since early 2023.
The headline was predictable; the message behind it was not.
Governor Tiff Macklem’s statement today signals that the Bank believes we’re near the end of the easing cycle and entering a period of assessment — a pause to see whether the economy can stabilize without slipping into a deeper slowdown.
1️⃣ Why the Bank Cut
The Bank of Canada’s press release and Monetary Policy Report paint a clear picture of an economy that’s sluggish, fragile, and uneven:
- Inflation: Headline CPI has slowed to around 2.4%, but core measures — the Bank’s preferred gauge — remain around 3%, suggesting price pressures are lingering in services and shelter costs.
- Growth: The Bank slashed its forecast for 2025 to ~1.2% GDP growth, and for 2026 to ~1.1%, down sharply from previous projections.
- Trade headwinds: Weak exports and soft business investment — exacerbated by U.S. tariff uncertainty — are weighing on manufacturing and confidence.
- Labour market: Job growth has stalled. The national unemployment rate has crept to 6.8%, and Ontario sits closer to 7.9%, with fewer job openings and rising part-time work.
- Household stress: Mortgage arrears and insolvencies are edging up, particularly among households that locked in ultra-low rates in 2020–2021 and are now renewing above 5%.
In short: the economy needed air. This cut was the oxygen.
2️⃣ Why They Might Stop Here
Despite the cut, the Bank is signalling a pause.
“If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with our projections, the current policy rate is about the right level.” – Bank of Canada, Oct 29 2025
Translation: Unless something breaks, this could be the bottom.
The Bank doesn’t want to risk over-stimulating the housing market just as it’s starting to rebalance, nor does it want to undo the hard-won progress on inflation.
Expect rates to hold for several months — possibly well into spring 2026 — as the Bank monitors how households and markets adjust.
3️⃣ Bond Market Reaction — The Real Driver of Mortgage Rates
The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield dropped to ~2.55% within minutes of the announcement.
Why does that matter?
Because fixed mortgage rates follow bond yields, not the overnight rate directly.
As bond yields decline, expect lenders to shave their fixed-rate offers in the coming days — though spreads may remain wide as banks manage funding costs and risk.
For variable-rate borrowers, the cut translates to a 25-basis-point drop in prime, bringing most banks’ prime to 4.45%.
That means someone with a $500,000 variable mortgage could see payments drop roughly $70–$90 a month, depending on amortization.
4️⃣ What This Means for Ontario Homeowners and Buyers
Ontario’s housing market is still cool by pandemic standards, but the trendlines are shifting.
- Average benchmark home prices across the province have inched down 2–3% since spring, but new listings are up and inventory has stabilized around 4 months — a balanced market.
- Toronto and Ottawa remain soft but show pockets of stability. Simcoe and Georgian Bay markets are benefiting from local migration and sustained demand for recreation and retirement homes.
- Unemployment and slower wage growth could cap upside momentum — which is good news for first-time buyers still priced out by tight supply.
In short: this cut may help reignite confidence without reigniting speculation — a healthy middle ground.
5️⃣ Strategy for Borrowers and Investors
✅ Renewals: If your mortgage is coming due in 2025 or 2026, you’re finally catching a break. Fixed rates could ease toward the mid-4s if bond yields stay lower.
✅ Variable borrowers: Enjoy the relief, but don’t get complacent. A pause is not a pivot to aggressive cuts — the Bank is still worried about sticky inflation.
✅ Investors: Lower borrowing costs plus softer prices make this an interesting window to refinance and acquire — especially if you can lock in equity today and ride the next growth cycle.
✅ HELOC and refi clients: With prime down 25 bps, HELOC interest eases slightly — but if you’re carrying revolving debt, consider rolling it into a fixed-term product to control cash flow.
6️⃣ The Smart Move Now
Think of today’s cut not as the green light to splurge, but as a yellow light — a signal to position strategically.
📉 If rates stay low longer → you gain payment relief and more buying power.
📈 If rates go back up → you want a mortgage plan that’s already future-proofed.
That’s where I come in. We’ll review your renewal window, debt structure, and market timing so you benefit from the cut — without betting on it.
7️⃣ What Comes Next
The Bank of Canada will now watch to see if this cut stimulates enough activity to steady the economy without re-igniting inflation.
The next announcement is set for December 10, 2025. Between now and then, expect bond markets to dictate where fixed rates go — and I’ll keep you updated on every basis point.
📊 Quick Snapshot: Impact of the Cut
Scenario | Before (2.50%) | After (2.25%) | Difference |
Prime Rate | 4.70% | 4.45% | -0.25% |
Variable Payment (500K @ 25 yrs) | $3,055 | $2,970 | -$85 / month |
5-Year Fixed Avg | 5.29% | ≈ 5.09% (expected) | -0.20% |
Bond Yield | 2.65% | 2.55% | -0.10% |
Bottom Line
This cut matters — but its significance is strategic, not symbolic.
It’s not about how low rates go; it’s about how you use this moment to reshape your financial position.
Now is the time to review, refine, and reset your mortgage strategy for 2026 and beyond.
Stuart Lessels
Your “Go-To” Mortgage Broker for Georgian Bay and Beyond
📧stuart@housenow.ca 📞 (705) 445-1234