Last week’s Bank of Canada rate cut may already feel like old news. But in reality, it’s the story that will define the fall market — for homebuyers, renewing homeowners, and investors. Here’s why the cut to 2.50% matters more today than it did last Wednesday, and the 3 things to watch before Oct 29.
1. Why the cut still matters now
- It confirmed the BoC has shifted bias from “fighting inflation” to “supporting growth.”
- Ontario unemployment creeping up (~7.9% in May).
- Inflation moderating (2.3% forecast).
- GDP slowing (~1.2% forecast for 2025). This is the start of an easing cycle — not just a one-off.
2. The signals to watch next (forward-looking)
- Unemployment: already edging higher. If it cracks 8% in Ontario, more cuts likely.
- Bond yields: 5-year GoC yield has dipped, suggesting fixed mortgage rates could soften.
- CPI trend: staying near 2% = green light for more easing.
3. What this means if you…
- Renew in next 12 months: Lock a rate early, but review strategy monthly. A 0.25% cut doesn’t erase payment shock, but it changes term choice math.
- Buy this fall: Slightly improved affordability + less competition. Get pre-approved now to hold terms.
- Hold a variable or HELOC: Small immediate savings. Bigger relief could come if BoC cuts again in 2026.
- Invest: Cash flow math improves. Fall listings + softer financing = timing opportunity.
4. Ontario’s lens
- GTA home prices down Year over Year. That should take pressure off much of the rest of the province.
- Housing starts softening.
- Mortgage arrears ticking up — a sign of stress. → Why it matters: Ontario households are squeezed. The cut buys breathing room, but planning is key.
5. The bottom line
This isn’t about celebrating a quarter point. It’s about recognizing the Bank of Canada just shifted the game. Smart borrowers will use this window to get ahead — not wait and hope.
Book a quick strategy session → Let’s make a plan before the next Bank of Canada decision on Oct 29.